x�b```���K�@(�������A���l�"���F��@�l�]_�S,��1�ɵc���|�p5/����T^��������^�n�Y�C+�Ս��w��m3f� �����ll����� (���(���1(�с���$��f`�;E�A�a"�t&/�F��@��������2�2�f�e�b�̼�i2����'�
2�0�6]�(����K� ��� �mEK
(Photo from GNS Science.) Shepherds Gully Fault last ruptured about 1200 years ago and has a recurrence interval of 2500–5000 years. The Wellington Fault last ruptured between 300 and 500 years ago with a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. This fault produces a large earthquake about every 500 to 1000 years. By combining 2016 coseismic slip partitioning, large-scale fault kinematics, volcanism propagation, seismicity, and slab geometry, we … Subdivision of the land in the 1960s took account of the fault, and no houses were built directly across it. This section covers ground shaking, liquefaction and surface fault rupture. 0000003034 00000 n
Land on the entire north-western side of the Wairarapa Fault was forced suddenly upwards, tilting Wellington Harbour and uplifting the seabed of the Cook Strait. A rupture of the Wellington Fault is considered to represent a worst-case, but realistic, scenario for planning purposes. The results from our second approach are also encouraging in that they produce similar predicted levels of ground shaking far more quickly than in the previous approach. We have successfully implemented this, but it is very time consuming to compute the results. Fault rupture, strong ground shaking, liquefaction, sinking, uplift, and landslides are all major issues the Hutt Valley faces in large earthquakes. %PDF-1.4
%����
Earthquake hazards include ground shaking, liquefaction, surface fault rupture, landslides and tsunamis. Little is known about these neighbouring faults other than the London Hills Fault is believed to rupture once every 3500–5000 years. The shaking intensities would need to be evaluated and considered in the design. the Wellington fault trace in the rock itself. We have found that this approach has two shortcomings. Firstly, there is an enhancement of shaking at frequencies related to the size of the subfaults. Only the long-lasting reverberations in the harbor seem a characteristic of the wave propagation common to both rupture directions. water, electricity, roads, telecommunications) crossing this fault. The Wellington Fault is an active dextral strike/slip fault that runs through central Wellington and along the north-west edge of Wellington Harbour. Exercise focused on six needs. These are: • treatment and movement of the injured • urban search and rescue A full length rupture on this fault, which has an estimated magnitude of 7.6 (Dawe et al. This is a difficult problem because, while we have a reasonable understanding of the low frequency behaviour (say 2-100 seconds period) of fault ruptures, we are not able to accurately model the high frequency behaviour (about ~1 Hz). These regions correspond to proposed rupture segments for both Wellington and Ruahine Faults. The most damaging earthquake would be a Wellington Fault rupture, involving a $17 billion repair cost for buildings, many of which would need to be completely replaced. The scenario used for Wellington region emergency management planning is a major earthquake of the Wellington Fault of magnitude 7.6 on the Richter scale, resulting in 4-5 metre horizontal and 1m vertical fault displacement and widespread disruption to the roading network. “Just because that one fault is the most likely to rupture, definitely doesn’t mean it’ll be the next one to rupture.” With more than 500 mapped faults in New Zealand, Brendan says the probability that large faults such as the Alpine Fault, the Hikurangi subduction zone or the Wellington fault will be the next one to rupture is very low. 0000003491 00000 n
disruption following a Mw7.5 Wellington Fault earthquake event with associated perils (fault rupture, ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides, lateral spreading, and subsidence). Online material: Movies of Wellington Fault rupture scenarios. The reality is that we don’t know for sure which fault is going to rupture next. The Ohariu Fault ruptured about 1100–1200 years ago, and has a recurrence interval of 1500–5000 years. Found inside – Page 257... of Wellington (Figure 7.1), much of its urban area lies in a zone which is expected to experience intensity MM10 when the Wellington fault ruptures, ... Found inside – Page 197MM9 in Wellington ; widespread landsliding in [ 16 ] , [ 20 ] Wellington region . ... Centroid ( centre of fault rupture surface ) depths ( km ) mostly from ... Found insideWellington shakes often and, disturbingly, in response to faults that strike directly ... The Wairarapa Fault ruptured in 1855, a magnitude 8.2 or above, ... We then spent a lot of effort on improving the efficiency of the calculations and transferring them to run on a cluster of 21 fast PC’s. "This report has taken a worst-case scenario - a Wellington Fault rupture measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale,'' Ms Wilde said. Another popular destination for families, Nelson is close to all the amenities and services of … The 2016, moment magnitude 7.8, Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand’s South Island generated some of the most complex surface ruptures ever observed. 2007), would have comparable if not worse impacts to the Christchurch Earthquake in 2011. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. New Zealand Earthquake fault zones including Kaikoura Area, Livingstone, Porters Pass-Amberly, Medbury, Cant Range Front, Spey-Mica Burn and Porters Pass-Amberly Fault Zone. Many of these research papers have PDF downloads available on the site. The method does show some deficiencies in addition to being slow. the Wellington Fault caused by the 1855,M 8.2 Wairarapa earthquake is significant considering that the average fault rupture recurrence interval on the Wellington Fault is about 500-770 years. Found inside – Page 318Wellington, for example, was uplifted by 1–2 m during the 1855 M 8.2 ... Rupture of these faults will probably produce vertical and/or lateral motion over ... The Wellington Fault last ruptured between 300 and 500 years ago with a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. This study provides a record of at least 12 Ms >6.5 earthquake events recorded on the Wellington Fault in the Kahuki-Dannevirke district, 9 of which occurred in the last 30,000 years. Online material: Movies of Wellington Fault rupture scenarios. This was the most difficult part of this project. The Wairarapa Fault ruptured in 1855 generating an earthquake of about magnitude 8.2. 0000003788 00000 n
Found inside – Page 514strain change across the Wellington Fault that is consistent with right ... Wellington Fault may assist prediction of the next surface rupture of the fault ... from a Wellington fault rupture scenario, and estimated that the minimum time to restore even a limited supply to Wellington City, following repairs, was 35–55 days (i.e., a timescale of weeks to months). These include the Awatere Fault, which had a major earthquake in 1848, and the Wellington Fault, which runs through Wellington and Hutt Valley. More rapid turn-around is required for detailed studies of the predicted ground shaking and what factors affect it. Despite catastrophic damage in the city, its area of impact was about 50km. An international team that drilled almost a kilometre deep into New Zealand’s Alpine Fault, which is expected to rupture in a … We have shown that these synthetic rupture models are consistent with real observations of the faulting in large shallow earthquakes world-wide. The event was selected as a suitable and credible event to measure the effectiveness … The active Wellington Fault is located approximately 8 km west of the site. Provided by Victoria University of Wellington. 0000001449 00000 n
Surface fault rupture and a large earthquake (approximately magnitude 7.5) on the Wellington Fault is regarded as … Scaling relations suggest a likely magnitude of M w 7.4-7.6. / Major Faults in New Zealand Found inside... asearlier ones have,then rupture throughthe aseismiczoneto thedeeper ... that pose thegreatestrisk, especially the Alpine, Hope, and Wellington faults, ... If this smoothing effect is more carefully matched we expect the results to be in much closer agreement. The sites show a consistent fault rupture record for the last four surface-faulting events along the Pahiatua section. Abstract. Discon-tinuities along the fault trace within this proposed segment include an 18° northeastward swing in strike near Thorndon, The earthquake rupture (movement on the faults) propagated south-west to north-east through the North Canterbury and Marlborough Fault areas- essentially "unzipping" along an approximately 180km length of the northeast coast of the South Island (Watching the M7.8 Kaikoura Quake Dominos Fall in Real Time).The rupture lasted nearly 2 minutes in total, and where the faults … Intensive research has been done to understand the nature of the fault and the best ways to reduce … The fault rupture will lead to loss of a span, and while there are catch frames to prevent the span falling on the railyards, access will still be disrupted. Near the Stuart Macaskill Lakes, mains water supply lines cross the Wellington Fault making water supply failure almost inevitable in the event of a Wellington Fault surface rupture. Found insideThis book assesses the cities and communities at critical risk of devastating earthquakes, and asks what we can do to protect them. Peak accelerations tend to be a little high, but this is most likely to be due to using a model with high velocities (akin to very hard rock) near to the surface and the lack of any attenuation terms. The Wellington Fault forms distinctive landscape features running right through the central city. The six critical community-based needs from the Wellington Region Civil Defence Emergency Management Group Plan were used as the focus for the exercise. The Wellington-Hutt-Valley segment of the Wellington Fault (Figure 1) is widely perceived to pose the greatest risk of any known active earthquake fault in New Zealand. Exercise focused on six needs. / How do we know which fault is most likely to rupture next in Wellington? Click for big version Shepherds Gully Fault (yellow), Ohariu Fault (green), Wellington Fault (red) Click for big version How often do earthquakes occur along the fault? 0000001634 00000 n
Awatere Fault 7.7 4210 36 South Clarence Fault 7.7 1990 70 South Hope Fault (Conway) 7.1 220 115 South Wellington Fault (Wn-Hutt) 7.5 840 55 East Alpine Fault (Kaniere-Tophouse) 7.7 620 100-280 South West Wairarapa 8.2 1200 86 East Jordan-Kekerengu-Needles 7.6 390 78 South Notes: 1) Wairau Fault data from Nicol & Van Dissen (2018). The Wellington Fault is also capable of producing earthquakes of up to magnitude-8. The trick in doing this is to correctly add up the contribution of each of the 1,500 subfaults with the correct timing and faulting behaviour. from a Wellington fault rupture scenario, and estimated that the minimum time to restore even a limited supply to Wellington City, following repairs, was 35–55 days (i.e., a timescale of weeks to months). Found inside – Page 30... on the international stage . with a large earthquake on the Wellington Fault . ... modelling of seismic wave propagation and earthquake fault ruptures . Found inside – Page 158624 km apart, which constrain the timing and size of recent surface rupture events on the northeast striking Ohariu Fault c. 6 km northwest of Wellington ... 0000062013 00000 n
The Wairau Fault last ruptured more than 800 years ago and has a recurrence interval of 1000–2300 years. The model has a 75 km length, a 20 km width, and dips at 80˚ to the northwest. The methods we have developed still have some shortcomings that need to be addressed. DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00692-6. Thus, there is a potential “gap” in water supply to households because water stored in However, the driving mechanism for such earthquake rupture complexity remains partly unclear. 0000004364 00000 n
The 2011 Christchurch earthquake, for example, was the result of a 16km fault rupture. Likely fault rupture hazard zone on the Wellington Fault. 0000061779 00000 n
Found inside – Page 41At one site along the Wellington fault, each of the most recent five events ... Clearly, slip must not scale with rupture length or width, except in the ... “Just because that one fault is the most likely to rupture, definitely doesn’t mean it’ll be the next one to rupture.” With more than 500 mapped faults in New Zealand, Brendan says the probability that large faults such as the Alpine Fault, the Hikurangi subduction zone or the Wellington fault will be the next one to rupture is very low. Found insideThe book is divided in the sections below: Invited papers Keynote papers Theme lectures Special Session on Large Scale Testing Special Session on Liquefact Projects Special Session on Lessons learned from recent earthquakes Special Session ... 0000008185 00000 n
0000003525 00000 n
2a). Found inside – Page 269(3) Until there are data on the timing of individual rupture events on the ... Segment of the Wellington Fault (or until the fault ruptures!) it remains ... Recent research has identified and further characterized vulnerable zones around the Hutt Valley. 0000000016 00000 n
Consider opportunities for enhancement of resilience through alternate widening on the western side, and alternate alignment for Wellington Fault crossing, fault rupture, coastal hazards or landslides and bridge failures. Waveforms and spectra differ significantly from the finite fault results. We have defined a 3-segment fault model for the Wellington fault based on geological evidence and the fault geometry. The major fault running through Wellington City is about 50 per cent less likely to rupture in the next 100 years than previously thought, according to research carried out under the ‘It’s Our Fault’ project. disruption following a Mw7.5 Wellington Fault earthquake event with associated perils (fault rupture, ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides, lateral spreading, and subsidence). This results in accelerations that are too high. 0000002684 00000 n
Q: Will the impacts of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault only affect the South Island? This fault produces a large earthquake about every 500 to 1000 years. (Photo from GNS Science.) The last rupture at the Wellington fault was between 300 and 450 years ago, and so we believe this fault will be the most likely source of a major Earthquake that the D2P bridges may experience. How do we know which fault is most likely to rupture next in Wellington? This method, however, also seems to have some shortcomings. Flood hazard mitigation and stormwater runoff measures will need to account for this significant change. Our aim is to produce realistic seismograms that can be used by the science and engineering community to improve building design or to estimate likely earthquake damage. New paleoseismic studies have been undertaken on the Wellington–Hutt Valley (W-HV) segment of the Wellington fault to characterize its late Holocene record of surface-rupturing earthquakes. Our approach differs from the more conventional approach in that we have used as a starting point some computer-generated Wellington fault ruptures that have been produced by a complex model of interacting fault patches (1,500 patches distributed uniformly over the fault). Found inside – Page 2812-New Zealand NT Wellington Fault ( N.Z. ) -Oklahoma NT Meers Fault ( Okla . ) ... fault location Fault ruptures , Surface USE Surface fault ruptures Fault ... Click for big version Shepherds Gully Fault (yellow), Ohariu Fault (green), Wellington Fault (red) Click for big version ]Q�F>Y�Q�5�⯮l����-E/@B��@~����g����4Z�np��w��W�O&T�ڠwK^o��Q��b�z�{��)�"1���b�k+%�'�LZ�EQ��ɰ�5N�Ws��vNx���)r Christchurch city, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa, and Ohariu fault ruptures in Wellington city. CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): Conference ABSTRACT: A primary goal of the Likelihood Phase of the “It’s Our Fault ” (IOF) project was a re-evaluation of the conditional probability of rupture of the Wellington-Hutt Valley segment of the Wellington Fault accounting for new IOF-catalysed Wellington Fault data. Secondly, our assumed model of the earth has very hard rock right to the surface and the way in which seismic waves die out with distance has not been included. Found inside – Page 69This makes it easier to respond to newly identified or revised fault lines. Wellington City has actually reexamined its district plan based ... In spite of the computer time limitations, we have been able to obtain some results using the first approach mentioned above. Found insideIn Portacom City he describes his own deeply personal story of working as a journalist during the quakes, while also speaking more broadly about the challenges that confront reporters at times of crisis. These warrant further investigation for a variety of rupture scenarios. The Wellington region is cut by five active right-lateral strike-slip faults: Wairarapa, Wellington, Ohariu, Shepherds Gully/Pukerua, and Wairau faults that have average recurrence intervals of meter-scale surface rupture that range from ∼500 years to 5000 years, and lateral slip rates that range from 1 … Nevertheless, the amplification factors in this north-to-south scenario are about the same as for the south-to-north rupture. Valley Segment of the Wellington Fault (Fig. The six critical community-based needs from the Wellington Region Civil Defence Emergency Management Group Plan were used as the focus for the exercise. Modelling realistic ruptures on the Wellington fault. This approach also seems to largely overcome problems related to the size of subfaults. Found inside – Page 34The Wellington Fault, snaking along The Terrace, through the harbour alongside the motorway ... The last major rupture was the Hauwhenua event in ad 1450, ... At the fault line itself, it is anticipated that a Wellington Fault rupture would produce a maximum of 4m to 5m in horizontal movement and up to 1m in vertical movement.